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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

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Faster-than-Expected Data Center Load Growth May Cause Increased Regional Short-term Fossil Fuel Generation and Wholesale Electricity Prices

LCG, March 18, 2026--The EIA released a new "In-depth Analysis" of the potential impact of faster-than-expected near-term growth in data center power demand on power generation and wholesale prices on March 12. The analysis models the lower 48 states through 2027 and compares results to its base case scenario. Key takeaway from this sensitivity analysis is the potential increase in fossil fuels in some regions and potentially a significant increase in wholesale prices in ERCOT.

Read more

Industry News

NRC Accepts Construction Permit Application for Dow's Advanced X-energy SMR Project in Texas

LCG, May 14, 2025--The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted Dow's construction permit application to build X-energy Reactor Company, LLC's ("X-energy") first small modular reactor (SMR) plant to power a chemical facility in Seadrift, Texas. Dow's wholly-owned subsidiary, Long Mott Energy LLC, is developing the project to provide Dow's UCC1 Seadrift Operations manufacturing site with safe, reliable, and clean power and industrial steam to replace existing energy and steam assets that are approaching end-of-life. The project is part of a demonstration project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and, if approved, would be the first advanced nuclear facility at an industrial site in the United States.

The relatively rapid acceptance by the NRC of the construction permit application is an example of streamlining the licensing process, as Dow and X-energy only recently announced the submission of their application to the NRC on March 31. The NRC stated that the application applied new technology-inclusive guidance issued by the NRC to streamline the review process for non-light-water reactor applicants. The new guidance leverages the industry-led Technology-Inclusive Content of Application Project (TICAP) project to support a more risk-informed review of the safety analysis report (SAR) used to support an advanced reactor application. The TICAP effort is a direct result of a larger licensing modernization project supported by DOE in collaboration with industry and NRC.

The Long Mott Generating Station project will include four Xe-100 SMRs, which are high-temperature, gas-cooled SMRs powered by specialized TRISO particle fuel (TRISO stands for TRi-structural ISOtropic). A single SMR can produce 80 MW of electric output or 200 MW of process heat and is designed to operate for 60 years.

Since 2018, X-energy, and subsequently Dow, have worked with the NRC to demonstrate the safety profile of the Xe-100 advanced SMR through its advanced fuel design and passive safety features. (As stated by the DOE, "TRISO particles cannot melt in a commercial high-temperature reactor and can withstand extreme temperatures that are well beyond the threshold of current nuclear fuels.") This work has resulted in a comprehensive application submittal, which X-energy states exceeds NRC regulations for the protection of public health and safety, as well as the environment, with substantial safety features.

X-energy was selected by the DOE in 2020 to develop, license, and build an operational Xe-100 advanced SMR and TRISO-X fuel fabrication facility. Since that award, X-energy has completed the engineering and preliminary design of the nuclear reactor and has begun development and licensing of a fuel fabrication facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Furthermore, X-energy has secured approximately $1.1 billion in private capital to commercialize its technology.

Dow anticipates that construction of the plant could begin within the next five years. Approval of the construction permit may take up to 30 months. Once the permit is received and upon Dow confirming the ability to deliver the project while achieving its financial return goals, construction could begin. Dow expects the cost of energy (net of all subsidies) to be competitive with other alternatives for firm, clean energy. X-energy's advanced SMR may be the first, grid-scale advanced nuclear reactor developed to serve an industrial site in North America.
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